2011/03/15 11:00 Theme 2: Thresholds and regime shifts in social-ecological systems , "Individual Paper Session 1: Characterizing Regime Shifts: Urban Case Studies and Data", Resilience 2011, Arizona State University

Resilience 2011 --  Resilience, Innovation and Sustainability:  Navigating the Complexities of Global Change -- Second International Science and Policy Conference -- March 11-16, 2011

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, by David Ing.

[The Domino Effect: A Network Analysis of Regime Shifts Drivers and Causal Pathways - Juan Carlos Rocha Gordo, Reinette Oonsie Biggs and Garry Peterson ]

Anthropocene and the likelihood of regime shifts

Regime shift as a large, abrupt persistent change in the structure and function of a system

  • Looking for policy relevance, as a substantial change in ecosystem services

Global change drivers, definition from MEA 2005

1 What are the major global change drivers of regime shifts?

2. Impacts

3. Cascading effects

Regime shifts database

Policy-relevant regime shifts

  • Reversibility:  Hysteretic, Irreversible, Reversible or Unknown

Network analysis

  • Drivers
  • Processes
  • Measure centrality:
    • Degree, thenumber of edgea a vertex is connected to (Newman 2010): In-degree and out-degree
    • Betweenness, the extent to which a vertex lies on paths between other verticies
    • Eigenvector, vertex is important if directly or indirectly connect to ther vertices that are in turn important (Allesina and Pascual 2009), like Google PageRank

Found only a few drivers have a lot of links

Local centrality as indegree; global centrality as eigenvector

Cascading effects

  • Up to 68 new inconvenient feedback shen coupling regime shift pairs (e.g. marine foodwebs collapse and kelps transitions)

[Regime Shifts in Two Australian Inland Cities, Kalgoorlie and Broken Hill - Helen Allison]

Urban resilience from resalliance.org

  • Metabolic flows
  • Governance networks
  • Social dynamics
  • Built environment