2011/03/12 15:45 Panel on "Anticipating surprise: Research frontiers in the quest for early-warning indicators of regime shifts", Resilience 2011

Submitted by daviding on Sun, 07/08/2018 - 01:34

Resilience 2011 --  Resilience, Innovation and Sustainability:  Navigating the Complexities of Global Change -- Second International Science and Policy Conference -- March 11-16, 2011

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, by David Ing.

Panel:

  • 1. Panel Introduction - Vasilis Dakos, Reinette Biggs
  • 2. Generic Early Warning indicators of regime-shifts – theory and application across ecosystems, climate, and financial systems - Marten Scheffer
  • 3. The limit to prediction: what do early-warning signals not tell us? - Vasilis Dakos
  • 4. Probability estimation of thresholds and regime shifts using data mining and Bayesian decision networks - Ted Lefroy
  • 5. Can webcrawlers revolutionize ecological monitoring? - Victor Galaz

[1. Panel Introduction - Vasilis Dakos, Reinette Biggs]

Have Regime Shifts Database at http://www.regimeshifts.org/ , but these aren't in advance

[2. Generic Early Warning indicators of regime-shifts – theory and application across ecosystems, climate, and financial systems - Marten Scheffer]

Nature 2009:  Early-warning signals for critical transitions at http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7260/abs/nature08227.html and http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature08227

Flat basins

Recovery time from perturbation is an early indicator

Spatial patterns may warn earlier: Dakos et al. Theoretical Ecology, 2010 at

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12080-009-0060-6 .

Sonia Kofi says that as approach collapse, get a power law curve

[3] The limit to prediction: what do early-warning signals not tell us? - Vasilis Dakos]

Could have bistable or not bistable systems

Could have continuous transition with or without tipping point