As the book on Industry 4.0 to Industry 5.0 was taking shape in March 2023, I was invited not only to serve as an editor, but also to contribute as an author. The edited volume is the final deliverable for the In4act project centered at the KTU School of Economics and Business in Kaunas, Lithuania that completed in December 2023. As the project was winding down, a roundtable discussion with some of the researchers was released.
Industry 4.0 was announced by the European Parliament in 2015, with the funding for research into the impact on management practices and economics following in October 2018. The EU announcement of Industry 5.0 during 2020 raised questions amongst researchers about how to handle the increased emphasis on human centricity. Then in fall 2022, the rise of Generative AI with the release of ChatGPT captured the attention of leaders, worldwide.
As a contributor coming from Canada, outside the EU, my research in systems changes provoked a question as to the meaning of 4.0 and 5.0. While the Industrial Revolution is conventionally regarded as 1.0, there’s a divergence on numberings used around the world. This led me to ask: what might we learn if we framed a transition from Industry 0.0 to Industry 1.0 and compared to that? Here’s the abstract.
As Industry 4.0 matures, what’s next? A generational shift to 5.0? Or an incremental adaptation to 4.x? Systems changes may involve both Socio-Technical Systems (STS) changes and Socio-Ecological Systems (SES) changes. Distinctions are explored historically circa 1492 with The Age of Discovery and Industry 0.0, evolving through centuries before a 1.0 Industrial Revolution. From the late twentieth century, The Age of Information was led by STS changes bringing a service economy and a knowledge society. Into 2024, polycrisis appears to be building with SES changes of natural disruptions due to climate change and the pandemic. Prospects for 2030 see eras of a maturing 4.x and emerging 5.0 alongside each other, with uncertainty as to which system characterizes the period.
Since my style is to write structurally, an outline of the chapter sections provides a quick overview.
- 7.1 Introduction: Numerical Naming of Systems Changes Differentiates Incremental Updates from Breaking Changes
- 7.1.1 Many Employ Numbering Societal and Technological Progress
- 7.1.2 Version Numbers Reflect Platform Generations, Releases, Patches and Enhancements
- 7.2 Systems Changes Are Messes of Incremental Adaptations and Generational Shifts
- 7.2.1 Four Analytical Threads of Systems Changes Separate Out Concerns
- Technical Systems Progressed From Caravels ➔ Galleons ➔ Steamships
- Socio-Psychological Systems Progressed from Renaissance ➔ Enlightenment ➔ Utilitarianism
- Ecological Systems Progressed from Columbian Exchange ➔ Plantation
Agriculture ➔ Coal Mining - Eco-Cultural Systems from Exploration ➔` Colonization ➔ Migration
- 7.2.2 Two Situating Textures of Systems Changes Combine Physical and Social Systems
- Socio-Technical Systems Progressed Expedition Sailors ➔ Navy or Cargo Crews ➔ Mechanics + Stokers
- Socio-Ecological Systems Progressed Compagnia ➔ Trading Charters ➔ Industrialist Families
- 7.2.3 Incremental Adaptation ≡ ΔSES or ΔSTS; Generational Shifts ≡ ΔSES × ΔSTS
- 7.2.1 Four Analytical Threads of Systems Changes Separate Out Concerns
- 7.3 The Current Era Sees ΔSES with Service Economy Alongside ΔSTS on Knowledge Society
- 7.3.1 Services Have Overtaken Manufacturing and Agriculture in GDP
- 7.3.2 ΔSTS Outpaced ΔSES with Digitalization Coupled with Services
- 7.3.3 ΔSES See Institutions Catching Up with Technological Advances
- 7.4 The Next Era Is Foreshadowed by ΔSES as Global Polycrisis, with ΔSTS Under Stresses and Strains
- 7.4.1 The Next Generational Shift May Come Via Global Polycrisis
- 7.4.2 ΔSES from Nature Include Climate Change and Pandemic
- 7.4.3 ΔSTS Pressures Include Infrastructural Transitions and Healthcare Shortages
- 7.5 Prospects: By 2030, Might We Expect Incremental Adaptations to Be Overtaken by a Generational Shift?
- 7.5.1 Expressions of Generational Shifts Follow Different Agendas
- 7.5.2 The Current Era Sees ΔSTS Increments, with ΔSES Catching Up
- 7.5.3 Aspirations Towards a Next Era ΔSES Are Facing Pessimism
- References
My chapter 7 is available as open access in the downloadable PDF and ePub. There’s a version cacned on the Coevolving Commons.
Critical readers may notice that the book is a collection of perspectives by a variety of authors, whom have not converged on a single set of conclusions. Reflecting conditions in 2023 with technological changes (e.g. AI), climate change and socio-political shifts, we decided that the book would be most valuable as a snapshot of its time. Projections looking forward in time might change.
Co-editing this book continues a research collaboration with Susu Nousala and Gary S. Metcalf, dating back to 2011 in Finland. Thomas J. Marlowe, who contributed a foreword, was the editor of a journal issue where I had previously contributed an article. Manuel Morales, Morteza Ghobakhloo and Andrius Grybauskas, I met on the March 2023 visit to KTU. Ryan Armstrong welcomed me to lecture at the University of Barcelona, when I was nearby. Jim Spohrer is long time friend from IBM, who agreed to expand a blog post into a full chapter. I haven’t actually yet met Rohan Fernando and Carlos Javier Torres Vergara in person, but our world is small.
Citation
David Ing, “Incremental Adaptation or Generational Shift?.” In Industry 4.0 to Industry 5.0: Explorations in the Transition from a Techno-Economic to a Socio-Technical Future 20 (7): 11–73. edited by Susu Nousala, Gary S. Metcalf, and David Ing, eBook, 151–84. Translational Systems Sciences 41. Singapore: Springer Nature. .https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-9730-5_7.
