Coevolving Innovations

… in Business Organizations and Information Technologies

Canadians are less miserable

Japan would seem to be a wonderful place to live, socially and economically. Merrill Lynch ranks Canadians as #2 in the G7. Here’s a summary that I’ve put together from news sources.

  Misery index (2007) Misery index (2005)
Japan 1.6 < 3.2 (inferred)1
Canada 6.4 7.1
Germany 6.5 > 6.5 (inferred)1
Italy 13.9 15.4
France 15.2 14.7
United States 17.3 17.9
Britain 19.6 17.6

John Partridge, in the Globe & Mail, explains how these numbers are calculated:

The lower the number, the better off you are, according to the Merrill index, which measures the economic and social costs for G7 countries, based on their ….

  • consumer price index,
  • unemployment rate,
  • real gross domestic product,
  • fiscal budget balance,
  • current account and
  • three-month treasury bill rate.

The Merrill Lynch study was first published in 2005 as an international index. For those more interested in an longitudinal view, there’s a U.S. Misery Index based just on employment and inflation. Wikipedia traces the U.S. version back to economist Arthur Okun.

I’m not going to make a dissertation out of this, but given that the services sector is such a large part (e.g. 70% to 80%) of the economy, I wonder if including GDP — that undercounts the services economy — into a misery index really makes sense.

When business people think of international economics between Canada and the U.S., they still think primarily goods. Partridge cites the Merrill-Lynch economist:

“Our strategists remain cautious about the Canadian economy and the [Canadian dollar], given its degree of exposure to the downturn in the U.S. economy,” Mr. Rosenberg said. “But these index readings suggest that the traditional U.S.-flu Canada catches when the U.S. sneezes may be milder than what we have seen in the past.”

Will Canadians really catch an economic flu? Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada provides a snapshot of services trade.

  • Canada is among the largest services exporters in the world. In 2005, Canada was the 15th largest services exporter in the world.
  • Cross-border exports of services totalled $65 billion in 2005, representing about 12.5 percent of Canada’s exports. At the same time, Canada imported $78.7 billion of services.
  • Our services exports are less dependent on the U.S. market than is the case for our goods exports, and our fastest-growing export markets are elsewhere. Between 1990 and 2004, for example, commercial services exports to Brazil grew by 23.5 percent annually; and to China by 16 percent.

In Canada, there’s a better story for knowledge workers than for blue collar workers:

  • Commercial services exports are the most important and fastest growing sector of services exports for Canada. Creating high-paying jobs in knowledge-intensive industries such as architecture, engineering, research and development services and financial services. [sic]
  • In 2005, commercial services accounted for 54 percent of services exports and 48 percent of services imports — the largest share of Canada’s services trade.

Canadians are low on the Merrill Lynch index for 2007. Even with our strong Canadian dollar — and especially if you’re an educated business professional in this country — I don’t see how we could even approach the levels of socio-economic misery in the U.S. and Britain, anytime soon.


1 I can’t see to find a formal announcement of the misery index by Merrill Lynch, but there’s a release by Bloomberg appearing on The Financial Express in India that gives some more hints.

1 Comment

  • As a full time currency trader based in the UK and working for myself, I thought I would add my thoughts to your post. I trade the USD/CAD pair a great deal and have studied the Canadian economy in detail, so I hope the following is useful. Six years after it hit an all time low in 2002 the Canadian dollar has since gained almost 40% against the US dollar and the question everyone is asking is whether this trend will continue, and if so for how much longer. On the economic front, the data presented by the Bank of Canada has continued to indicate a slowdown in growth particularly in the manufacturing sector. Canadian job prospects remain good, which would suggest that the economy is resilient at present to any slowdown. However, with the possibility of a full recession in the US, then further slowing of the Canadian economy is inevitable. In recent months the combination of favourable inflation figures and evidence of weaker growth will, I believe, encourage the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates to follow those in the US, but that these cuts will be small to avoid the possibility of increasing inflationary pressures in the economy. Overall, I believe that the Canadian dollar is unlikely to weaken sharply against the US dollar, but the current position of parity may be difficult to sustain in the longer term and a move back to around 1.10 or 1.15 would seem the most likely target. If resistance is penetrated at 1.15 then the Loonie could weaken further.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

  • RSS qoto.org/@daviding (Mastodon)

    • New status by daviding October 9, 2019
      Declarations of sapiosexuality may describe individuals seeking partners for intellectual intercourse.> A self-described “sapiosexual," someone who is primarily attracted to intelligence over physical appearance, Van Dusen says she now screens her dates for post-secondary education. [.....]> Many sapiosexuals acknowledge the term can come off elitist, but in the often superficial world of online dating, they […]
    • New status by daviding August 19, 2019
      In the Canadian press, this is attributed to inverted yield curve, resulting from the trade war. > Anyone buying that bond is willingly buying an investment that&apos;s guaranteed to lose money, but investors are more than happy to buy it up - because the fear is that alternative investments will fare even worse. [....]> Those […]
    • New status by daviding August 19, 2019
      There&apos;s something seriously wrong in the global financial markets, when banks are offering mortgages at zero or negative rates. > Jyske Bank, Denmark&apos;s third largest, has begun offering borrowers a 10-year deal at -0.5%, while another Danish bank, Nordea, says it will begin offering 20-year fixed-rate deals at 0% and a 30-year mortgage at 0.5%.> […]
    • New status by daviding August 18, 2019
      Web video of Systems Changes: Learning from the Christopher Alexander Legacy, extending #patternlanguage especially Eishin School and Multi-Service Centers methods-in-practice. For #SystemsThinking Ontario, up the learning curve on ongoing research. http://coevolving.com/blogs/index.php/archive/systems-changes-learning-from-the-christopher-alexander-legacy-st-on-2019-02-11/
    • New status by daviding August 16, 2019
      Web video of presentation of Evolving Pattern language towards an Affordance Language, 2018, on week visiting#RaphaelArar and #JimSpohrer at Almaden. Insider&apos;s history of science and prospects http://coevolving.com/blogs/index.php/archive/evolving-pattern-language-towards-an-affordance-language-almaden-2018-05-09/#systemsthinking #patternlanguage
  • RSS on IngBrief

  • Recent Posts

  • Archives

  • RSS on daviding.com

    • 2019/10 Moments October 2019
      Tightly scheduled weekdays at Ryerson Chang School, weekends in Gravenhurst clearing out family building as we're leaving the town permanently.
    • 2019/09 Moments September 2019
      Full month, winding down family business in Gravenhurst, starting Ryerson Chang certificate program in Big Data, with scheduled dinners with family and friends.
    • 2019/08 Moments August 2018
      Enjoyed summer with events in Toronto, followed by trips back my home town Gravenhurst, staying overnight for the first time in over 30 years.
    • 2019/07 Moments July 2019
      Busy month of living every day of the summer to the fullest, visiting family and friends, enjoying the local sights of the city.
    • 2019/06 Moments June 2019
      Summer arrived in Toronto, with the month ending in travel to BC and Oregon.
    • 2019/05 Moments May 2019
      Family time, empty nest, short trip to conference nearby, friends at home.
  • RSS on Media Queue

  • Meta

  • Creative Commons License
    This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License
    Theme modified from DevDmBootstrap4 by Danny Machal